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 Revival in exports, manufacturing to drive 4th quarter GDP

The gross domestic product growth figure is expected to close at 8 percent for the fourth fiscal year considering the sustained activities in the areas of manufacturing, exports showing an upward climb, and the industry enhancing capacity utilization.

Sectors that are making positive contribution to the economy include: automobile, telecom, services, engineering and heavy engineering. For that matter, even mining and power sector ate progressively contributing to the improved results.

In sectors such as gems and jewellery, textiles, apparel, fashion garments and engineering, exports will reportedly be better than the last quarter.

Even capacity utilization of India Inc. is said to have climbed over 72 percent. This will be instrumental in further expediting the GDP growth.

The first quarter saw the economy grow by 6.1 percent and in the sector it was 7.9 percent, before slowing to 6 percent in the quarter ended December 2009.

The continuous rise in inflation primarily run by Reserve Bank of India will boost key policy rates by 25 basis points earlier this month. There are reports that an increase in policy rates could happen during the quarterly policy review in April.

In the impending monetary policy, RBI should try and maintain the status-quo in the existing rates of cash reserve ratio, repo rate, and reverse repo rate. If a more strict monetary decision is taken, there is every possibility that growth will be hit, informed an ASSOCHAM statement.



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